The global lithium market is undergoing a period of flux. Following years of solid growth, prices have plummeted from their 2022 peak amid slowing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and an oversupply from global producers. Overall, the cost of lithium hydroxide fell by around three quarters between 2023 and 2024, and has continued to fall in 2025.

Australia, the world’s largest producer of lithium ore (accounting for 46% of the global total in 2024), felt this decline more sharply than most, forcing several mining operations to pause amid deteriorating market conditions.

However, a rebound may be on the horizon. Analysts expect a resurgence in 2025, fuelled by renewed growth in EV adoption and clean energy storage. Although lithium prices remain difficult to predict, Australian miners are once more betting big on the metal.

With an abundance of active lithium mines and reserves, Australia is well placed to be at the forefront of this lithium opportunity. However, as demand grows, questions have been raised as to how this burgeoning market can remain sustainable and how waste streams can be safely managed.

Strengthening domestic recycling capabilities, developing greener processing methods and building closed-loop supply chains could be key to ensuring that growth in lithium production does not come at the expense of the environment.

Support for lithium in Australia

By 2040, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand for lithium to be more than 40-times current levels if the world is to meet its Paris Agreement goals. As such, despite the current market volatility, optimism about the future of lithium remains strong.

In this context, Australia has positioned itself to be a leading global supplier.

In 2024, the federal government extended a A$230m ($149.81m) loan to Liontown Resources, which began production at its Kathleen Valley mine last July. The mine is expected to produce around 500,000 tonnes (t) of spodumene concentrate annually. Spodumene is Australia’s main source of lithium.

Meanwhile, Perth-based Pilbara Minerals plans to boost lithium ore production at Pilgangoora by 50% over the next year through its P1000 project.

Crucially, there has been an uptick in interest to build out not only the extraction side of the lithium supply chain but also refineries. For instance, in Western Australia, Covalent Lithium is constructing its own lithium refinery, while Albemarle is operating another refinery in the region.

The motivation behind the shift in focus stems from efforts to diversify critical minerals supply chains and move away from China’s continued dominance. According to the IEA, China currently accounts for 70% of global lithium refining.

Closing the gap on domestic lithium processing

“At the moment in Australia, we are doing the mining and integration aspects of lithium-ion [Li-ion] batteries really well,” says Neeraj Sharma, chemistry professor at the University of New South Wales, and founder of the Australian battery society. “Our grid is years ahead when it comes to battery storage. It is the middle part of the supply chain that we need to grow – the processing and cell manufacturing aspects.”

Similarly, Serkan Saydam, chair of mining engineering at UNSW Sydney, believes the main gap in Australia’s lithium supply chain lies in the processing and refining element.

“While Australia excels in lithium extraction, it currently lacks sufficient domestic processing and refining capacity, leading to reliance on overseas facilities,” says Saydam.

Indeed, in 2022–23 Australia exported 98% of its spodumene concentrate for processing.

Both Sharma and Saydam identify developing lithium processing capability as necessary not only for Australia’s national security and economic growth but also for sustainable industry development.

Saydam says developing low-emission processing infrastructure is essential “not only for economic gain but also for minimising environmental impacts through tighter regulatory oversight”.

Building out this part of the supply chain could also, Sharma believes, help establish a more robust battery recycling industry in Australia. 

“If we know what is going into the batteries from a processing perspective, it will better equip us to know how to recycle them at the end of life,” he tells Mining Technology. “We are seeing a lot of interest from the mining and start-up sectors to move towards this, but right now, without the right electrode processing or refinement in-country, it is harder to create the recycling processes needed in-country.”

Building out battery recycling

According to the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, only around 10% of Li-ion battery waste is currently recycled in Australia. However, Sharma predicts that as large-scale battery demand grows, so too will the recycling rates.

“I think recycling rates for things like EV batteries will be close to 100%,” he says. “Just by the nature of the fact that these batteries are large, people won’t want to have them hanging around.”

The difficulty, he says, lies in scalability and the fact that battery chemistry is still evolving.

“Currently there are not enough Li-ion batteries to recycle efficiently,” says Sharma, adding that battery chemistry is constantly evolving, meaning recyclers are collecting batteries that “have a mix of so many different chemicals”.

Some battery chemistries are emerging as dominant, however, and Sharma suggests that the next few years will see the emergence of a “more homogenous” battery waste stream that will be easier to organise and recycle.

“[Once] you have more batteries available to recycle, then you have the scale to be able to do so effectively,” he adds. “Once you start to standardise the battery chemistry, you can then start to think about really minimising the steps of recycling.”

Some progress is being made. There is also an historical precedent, with the lead-acid battery industry providing a model Australia can learn from.

In January 2022, the Battery Stewardship Council introduced a levy scheme in partnership with manufacturers, lifting the recovery rate of small batteries from less than 8% to more than 16% within six months. The Australian Government also recently announced its National Battery Strategy, laying out ways to support its domestic battery industry as it grows.

As Australia works to close the loop, embedding sustainability throughout the supply chain will be crucial. With environmental, social and governance standards becoming more stringent, shareholders and consumers alike will be paying close attention.

Looking ahead to a more sustainable future

Saydam warns that Australia’s mines will have to integrate more sustainable practices into operations to not only meet future lithium demand but also become a “key player” in the global transition to a low-carbon economy. 

“Investment in innovation – such as direct lithium extraction and low-carbon refining technologies – is vital to reduce the environmental footprint and support a circular economy,” Saydam says. “The industry must navigate global market volatility and advocate for clear national policies that support sustainable growth.

“Addressing these challenges holistically will be key to ensuring that Australia can scale its lithium production in a responsible and globally competitive manner,” he adds.

Australia has already begun to develop local refining capacity and domestic battery recycling initiatives. Still, significant hurdles remain in meeting the fast-rising global demand. Optimising lithium extraction and processing will require a coordinated blend of legislative reform, technological advancement and strategic investment, according to Saydam.

“Legislative frameworks need to be strengthened to encourage sustainable and efficient practices,” he says. “This includes creating clear, stable policies that incentivise domestic value-adding activities such as refining and battery material production, rather than solely exporting raw materials.

“Regulatory settings should also enforce strict environmental standards to ensure water use, waste management and emissions are responsibly managed, while fast-tracking approvals for sustainable technology deployment,” Saydam continues.

Enhancing community and Indigenous engagement, investing in workforce upskilling, and encouraging collaboration between academia, industry and government were also highlighted as key to long-term success.

As Saydam concludes: “In essence, the long-term success of Australia’s lithium industry depends on a holistic approach that integrates sustainability, innovation and strategic positioning in the global value chain.”