Systemiq and ERM have released a report examining how decisions made today could influence global mining and metals systems through to 2050.
The study, entitled Future Prospects, was developed in partnership with the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) and funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.
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Drawing on more than 20 expert interviews and collaboration with ICMM member companies, the report sets out three scenarios to help decision-makers consider risks and opportunities for mineral supply, ecosystems and society.
The analysis indicates that the supply of mined materials will need to rise in all modelled scenarios.
However, it observes that nearly 38% of mining and metals facilities are already located in areas suffering from high or extremely high water stress, or in arid regions, suggesting that future expansion could put additional pressure on water resources, land and ecosystems.
The length of time required to bring new mines into operation, often up to 20 years, means current investment, technology and partnership choices will shape the industry’s long-term outcomes.
The three scenarios, Fracture, Flywheel and Space Race, reflect different levels of technological innovation and government action.
The report finds that material efficiency, substitution and recycling can influence primary demand but cannot remove the need for new mining.
Under the Flywheel scenario, copper supply is projected to be 25% above current levels by 2050 and lithium 180% higher.
In the Fracture scenario, these figures increase to a 40% increase for copper and 240% for lithium.
Environmental impacts vary considerably depending on the approach taken.
In a scenario with limited innovation and national security priorities, water consumption in mining could be 70% higher and deforestation 40% higher than modelled 2050 baselines.
Conversely, more balanced governance and innovation could result in a 35% reduction in water use and a 25% decrease in deforestation.
The report also notes that environmental risks such as water stress and community opposition are increasingly affecting project permitting and operational costs, with 60% of mining projects in development facing delays. Permitting is cited in nearly half of these cases.
Systemiq and ERM stress that the scenarios are designed as tools for testing assumptions rather than forecasts or preferred outcomes.
