Global mining productivity stagnated in 2025 despite a growing range of technologies, while autonomous haulage adoption remains uneven and mineral discovery costs continue to rise, according to McKinsey.
Mining productivity failed to improve in 2025 despite increased use of automation, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, according to McKinsey’s Global Materials Perspective 2026, which identifies a widening gap between the industry’s technology potential and its performance.
Go deeper with GlobalData
Discover B2B Marketing That Performs
Combine business intelligence and editorial excellence to reach engaged professionals across 36 leading media platforms.
“Mining productivity stagnated again in 2025 after a modest rebound following COVID-19,” the report states. Capital expenditure and mergers and acquisitions increased during the year, while profit margins remained high, but volumes and productivity gains did not keep pace.
Unit costs for copper, gold and iron ore rose by between 28% and 36% from 2020, compared with a 24% increase in the US Consumer Price Index over the same period, McKinsey reports.
The findings come despite an expanding range of technologies intended to improve mining performance, including advanced analytics, AI, automation and robotisation. McKinsey estimates that productivity improvements could create annual value of $450bn–$750bn across the metals and mining industries, equivalent to 15–25% of industry revenue in 2025 if captured at scale.
The estimate is based on an assessment of more than 150 known innovations and proven industry references. McKinsey cautions, however, that not all the potential value would translate into higher industry profits, as wider adoption could affect supply, demand and commodity prices.
Autonomous haulage adoption remains uneven
Autonomous haulage provides one example of the pace of technological change, but also of the differences in adoption between markets.
The global fleet of autonomous haulage systems nearly tripled between 2024 and 2026, according to McKinsey. China has become the largest market, accounting for more than half of operating fleets.
The report says the rollout has been uneven, with China often moving faster than other regions. It warns that this could widen productivity differences between operators and mining regions.
“Regions and operators that scale autonomy and integrate it into mine planning and maintenance may pull ahead; laggards may fall further behind even as the technology becomes mainstream,” the report states.
McKinsey identifies the integration of autonomous systems into wider mine operations as part of the opportunity to improve productivity. Its analysis places autonomous haulage alongside other technologies and operational improvements that could raise throughput and reduce operating costs.
How autonomous vehicle fleets are reshaping Australia’s mining workforce
Autonomous mining’s next challenge: making the whole fleet work together
Yimin coal mine: what 100 AI-driven electric trucks taught the mining sector
Exploration costs rise as discovery productivity declines
The report also identifies declining exploration and discovery productivity as a challenge for future mineral supply.
“Exploration spend is flat while cost per discovery has risen more than fivefold,” McKinsey states in its summary of the sector’s key trends.
The report records an average of fewer than five major copper or gold discoveries a year over the past decade. It also notes that rising costs associated with grassroots exploration increase the effective cost of future supply.
The findings highlight a further productivity challenge beyond the operation of existing mines: exploration spending is not translating into discoveries at the pace the industry needs.
McKinsey says that capital availability alone does not ensure an increase in mineral supply, with the report noting that capital on balance sheets does not necessarily translate into additional production or discoveries at the required pace.
Taken together, the findings point to a contrast between a growing range of technologies and the industry’s ability to convert them into measurable productivity gains. McKinsey says the coming years could prove pivotal as companies seek to move beyond technology pilots and scale solutions across operations.
