Global nickel production is estimated to have increased by 6.1% in 2025, driven primarily by Indonesia’s continued expansion. The country remained the overwhelming source of incremental supply growth, supported by strong production momentum across key operations, including Weda Bay, Gag Island, Huafei, Pakal Island, Pomalaa, PT Halmahera Persada Lygend, and Tapunopaka. This reinforced Indonesia’s position as the main growth engine in the global nickel market.
Outside Indonesia, Brazil and Canada also contributed to the increase, although on a smaller scale. In Brazil, production was supported by higher output from Vale’s Onça Puma mine, where the commissioning of a second furnace increased capacity and improved operating efficiency. In Canada, growth was supported by the continued ramp-up of the Voisey’s Bay mine.
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However, these gains were partly offset by contractions in Australia and the Philippines. Australia’s nickel output is estimated to have declined by 58.6% year-on-year in 2025, as weaker profitability, rising global supply, and planned mine closures weighed on production. Key affected operations included Yakabindie, Cliffs, Mount Keith, Spotted Quoll, Leinster, Ravensthorpe, Cassini, Long Nickel, Flying Fox, and the Otter Juan mines, which together accounted for nearly half of Australia’s nickel production in 2024.
The Philippines also recorded a decline in 2025, reflecting the planned closure of several mines, including H.Y. Nickel-Chromite, Esperanza, Pulot, and Dinagat Chromite/Nickel projects. Weather disruptions further pressured output, with El Niño-linked conditions intensifying the Q1 rainy season and flooding some open-pit operations.
Looking ahead, global nickel production is expected to rise further by 9.4% in 2026. Growth will again be led by Indonesia, with smaller contributions from Canada, the Philippines, New Caledonia, and Brazil. Indonesia’s expansion will be supported by the continued ramp-up of integrated upstream-downstream operations, improved mine-to-smelter linkages, and stronger demand from RKEF and battery-material processing facilities.
Key contributors to Indonesia’s 2026 growth will include Sulawesi Cahaya Mineral, Weda Bay, Gag Island, Huafei Pakal Island, Morowali, and Pomalaa. The stabilisation of smelter operations following maintenance-related disruptions in 2025, along with improved ore-handling infrastructure and greater feedstock self-sufficiency, is expected to support sustained increases in mining activity.
