The 12-month suspension of China’s expanded rare earth export controls is set to expire on 10 November 2026, with current supply conditions indicating limited progress in reducing global dependence, according to analysis from EBC Financial Group.
Six months into the pause, available data “does not suggest readiness”, the firm stated, pointing to continued concentration across mining, processing and downstream manufacturing.
The October 2025 measures – which expanded the list of controlled elements and introduced extraterritorial provisions – were suspended for one year. However, earlier controls introduced in April 2025 remain in force, requiring case-by-case export licences for seven medium and heavy rare earth elements, including dysprosium and yttrium.
According to the US-based think tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the suspension “pauses some hostile trade actions” while leaving core restrictions intact.
Data from GlobalData’s Global Rare Earths Mining (2026 Review), indicates that supply remains structurally concentrated. Global rare earth mine production reached an estimated 390kt rare-earth-oxide (REO) equivalent in 2025, with China accounting for 270kt, or 69.2% of output.
The report also notes that China processes “up to 90%” of global rare earths, reinforcing its position beyond upstream mining.
Outside China, production remains comparatively limited. The United States accounted for 13.1% of global output in 2025, while Australia contributed 7.4%, according to GlobalData.
Global reserves stood at 85 million tonnes as of January 2026, with China, Brazil, Australia, Russia and Vietnam holding a combined 78.6 million tonnes, highlighting the geographic concentration of resources.
The processing stage remains the principal bottleneck. While multiple countries mine rare earths, most material continues to be refined in China before entering downstream supply chains.
The suspension period was intended to support the development of alternative supply capacity. However, projections from Bloomberg Intelligence indicate that supply growth outside China will remain insufficient to meet demand.
Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts a 4.4-fold increase in non-Chinese neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production between 2024 and 2030, but still projects a 36% global shortfall by 2030 as demand grows at around 7% annually.
GlobalData’s February report also points to rising demand driven by energy transition technologies. Rare earth demand is projected to increase from 91kt in 2024 to 178kt by 2050, with electric vehicles and wind energy accounting for a growing share of consumption.
In 2025, China exported approximately 62.5kt of rare earths, underlining its continued role as the primary supplier to global markets despite tightening policy controls.
Industry capacity outside China remains under development. In the United States, MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are advancing domestic mining and processing, while Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources are expanding refining capability.
However, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “no single country” currently has the financial or technical capacity to replicate China’s integrated supply chain.
Three potential policy outcomes are identified ahead of the November deadline: an extension of the suspension, selective reinstatement of controls targeting specific elements or end uses, and full reimposition of the October 2025 measures.
Selective reinstatement could be implemented through the existing licensing framework, while full reimposition – including extraterritorial provisions – would affect downstream industries across automotive, defence and energy sectors.
China’s export control approach mirrors mechanisms used in semiconductor trade policy, extending jurisdiction to products manufactured outside its borders but containing controlled materials.
Despite ongoing investment, GlobalData notes that diversification remains “gradual and capital-intensive”, with China expected to retain a dominant position in processing and magnet manufacturing through the decade.
The November 2026 deadline is now less than seven months away, with China’s licensing infrastructure suspended rather than removed and key controls still active.
