Global lead production is estimated to have increased by a marginal 0.7% in 2025 to reach 4.575 million tonnes (mt), with China, Russia, Peru, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Ireland playing a pivotal role by accounting for 63.7% of this total.
China led this output growth following the July 2025 start of the Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine and stable production at the Jiama mine, while Russia’s output improved due to the ongoing ramp-up of the Ozernoe mine, which began in September 2024. Meanwhile, production growth in Peru was driven by higher ore grades and improved operational efficiency at the Antamina and Cerro de Pasco Sulphide Stockpiles mines, and ongoing expansions at the Zawar and Sindesar Khurd mines supported growth in India.
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South Africa also contributed to the overall growth, due to improved output from the Black Mountain Mine, despite a fatal incident and shaft breakdown in April 2024, while Ireland’s production grew following the October 2024 restart of the Tara Mine after more than a year of care and maintenance.
However, this collective uptrend was largely offset by declines in Australia, the US, and Kazakhstan, specifically due to lower ore grades at the Cannington, Peak, and Rosebery mines and the December 2025 closure of the Lady Loretta Mine in Australia. Production was further constrained by lower grades at Kazakhstan’s Zhairemsky Mine and the declining grades ahead of the planned closure of the Red Dog mine in the US.
Looking ahead to 2026, global lead production is anticipated to grow by 2.2% to reach 4.68mt, supported by planned increases in Brazil, China, India, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Peru, and Russia, which will offset projected declines in the US and Poland.
China is expected to drive this next phase of growth through the continued ramp-up of the Huashaoyun mine, followed by Mexico, which will benefit from the 2026 commencement of the Oposura project, the ramp-up of the Tahuehueto mine, and higher ore grades at the Sautico mine. Meanwhile, the start of the Huaron Expansion and Romina II projects will drive Peru’s growth, while India and Russia will see increases underpinned by mine expansions and the ongoing ramp-up of new projects. Over the forecast period (2026-2035), Canada, Mexico, and the US are expected to achieve a significant 55.1% increase in combined production, rising from 544,300t in 2024 to 844,100t in 2035. This regional surge will be driven by the commissioning of major new projects such as Hermosa Taylor (2027), Murray Brook (2028), Scotia Expansion (2030), Pine Point (2030), Macmillan Pass (2031), and Cordero (2030).
Despite these regional gains, overall global lead production is expected to grow only marginally at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% over the forecast period to 4.89mt by 2035, due to the planned closure of key mines including the Rasp (2026), Cerro De Pasco Sulphide Stockpiles (2027), Animon (2027), Xitieshan (2030), and Roseberry (2030). These inevitable declines will, however, be partially balanced by the commissioning of major new sites such as the Sorby Hills Project (2027), Corani Project (2028), and Ambaji Project (2030).
