The global rough diamond production is forecast to increase from 127 million carats (Mct) in 2015 to 134.5Mct by 2020, according to a report by GlobalData.

Entitled ‘Global Diamond Mining to 2020’, the report projects the market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1%. The growth will be propelled by expansions of the operating mines, including Lukoil Oil Company’s Vladimir Grib project in Russia, the Diavik and Ekati Diamond mines in Canada, and Rio Tinto’s Argyle mine in Australia.

However, the global diamond output is expected to fall after 2019 due to reserve depletions in the Argyle, Diavik and Ekati mines.

"Demand for diamond jewellery is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% globally driven by China and India."

Demand for diamond jewellery is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% globally driven by China and India, which are predicted to consume a combined 50% of worldwide output, according to GlobalData’s head of research and analysis for mining Cliff Smee.

Global supply of polished diamond is expected to grow at an average of 4% a year over the next four years to 163Mct in 2019. As a result, a demand-supply gap of 5%-6% is expected to be achieved after 2019.

The supply deficit is expected to further worsen by the projected fall in diamond production levels in countries of high political risk such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia, adds Smee.