Australia’s iron ore sector remains the backbone of global steel supply, but the conditions that underpinned its rise are beginning to shift. After decades of rapid expansion, the industry is entering a more constrained phase, shaped by maturing assets, tighter margins and evolving demand from key markets.
In this episode, we examine GlobalData’s latest outlook for Australian iron ore to 2035, exploring how slower production growth, ageing Pilbara assets and a tightly concentrated export market are reshaping the industry.
With output still expected to rise modestly toward 1.1 billion tonnes, the focus is turning from expansion to replacement. At the same time, there is a shift from volume to quality, as decarbonisation is changing steelmakers’ needs, placing greater emphasis on higher-grade ore and new processing pathways.
Joining the discussion are GlobalData’s director of mining research and analysis Dave Kurtz and mining analyst Prasanna Lakshmi, who break down the numbers behind the forecast, from project pipelines and production dips to pricing pressure and China’s continued dominance in demand.
We assess whether Australia is entering a steady plateau or a more fundamental transition in the iron ore market.
Alejandro Gonzalez, editor of GlobalData’s Mining Technology title, is the host for this episode of Energy Technology: Industry Insights.
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