The US’ copper production is expected to remain largely stable in 2025 at 1,077 kilotonnes, equivalent to annual growth of 1.7% year-on-year versus 2024. The limited growth is mainly attributed to planned lower production from major operations such as the Kennecott Copper Project and the Phoenix Mine. At Kennecott, wholly owned by Rio Tinto, a scheduled maintenance shutdown at its concentrator and smelter during the third quarter of 2025 has temporarily reduced output. However, production is expected to rebound in 2026 with the commencement of underground operations at the North Rim Skarn area of the Kennecott Copper Project.
Similarly, the Phoenix Mine, jointly owned by Barrick Gold and Newmont, is expected to record lower production due to the processing of lower-grade ores in 2025. Despite these temporary setbacks, the decline in output will be partially offset by the commissioning of new and restarted operations, including the Johnson Camp Restart Project and the Mineral Park Restart Project. The Johnson Camp project began operations in August 2025 after securing permits in October 2024, marking the first copper production from the mine since its restart.
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The US copper industry’s medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by several new projects scheduled to commence operations from 2026 onwards. Notably, the Florence and Copperwood projects are expected to start production in 2026, together adding nearly 70 kilotonnes per annum of new copper capacity. Meanwhile, the Mineral Park Restart Project is advancing its development and is expected to begin trial production by the end of 2025, with a more substantial contribution anticipated in 2026. Copper from the project will be supplied to the US energy, defence, and manufacturing industries, aligning with national efforts to enhance domestic mineral security. The project has an estimated annual production capacity of around 11.2 kilotonnes.
Additionally, the start-up of large-scale projects such as the Mesaba (2029), and Ann Mason (2030), among others is projected to significantly increase the country’s output, elevating the US to one of the top five global copper producers by 2030, and further improving its ranking by 2035.
Overall, the country’s copper output is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% between 2025 and 2035, reaching 2,158 kilotonnes by 2035. This long-term growth will be underpinned by the commissioning of several projects, including the CK Gold Project, Antler Mine, Tamarack, and MacArthur, which will collectively contribute to strengthening the country’s supply resilience and meeting rising domestic and global copper demand.
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