Global natural graphite production set to rebound in 2025 with ramp-up of major projects

Following modest growth of 1.3% in 2024, global natural graphite production is poised for a sharp rebound in 2025, with output expected to surge by 18.1% year-on-year to reach approximately 1,830 kilotonnes. This uptick reflects the commissioning and ramp-up of several major projects across Africa and North America, setting the stage for a renewed growth trajectory in the natural graphite market.

Mozambique will lead the recovery, with output projected to rise nearly seven-fold from 36.4 kilotonnes in 2024 to 247.5 kilotonnes in 2025, accounting for approximately 13.5% of global production. This dramatic increase will be driven by the restart of Syrah Resources’ Balama Graphite project and the launch of the Nipepe Graphite project, both scheduled for production in 2025. The restart of Balama alone signals renewed investor confidence following prior curtailments linked to market and operational pressures.

Other countries will also play a pivotal role in the 2025 recovery. Combined natural graphite production from Tanzania, Canada, and Madagascar is forecast to rise from 91.7 kilotonnes in 2024 to 130.6 kilotonnes in 2025. In Tanzania, the ramp-up of the Lindi Jumbo project, which began operations in 2024, will drive output growth. In Canada, Northern Graphite Corporation is set to expand production at its Lac-des-lles mine to 25 kilotonnes per annum, nearly doubling current levels. The company is also planning to open a new pit at the site to enhance output further.

Madagascar’s contribution will stem primarily from Tirupati Graphite’s Vatomina project, which is set to rebound after facing operational disruptions in 2024 due to liquidity constraints. Production is planned to recover in phases, scaling up to 1.5 kilotonnes per month by year-end.

Looking ahead, natural graphite production is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% between 2025 and 2030, with global output projected to nearly double to roughly 3,780 kilotonnes by 2030. This growth will be underpinned by a robust project pipeline that includes Mozambique’s Nipepe and Balama restart, Madagascar’s Molo Phase 1 and Maniry, China’s Yunshan Graphite Mine (2026), and Tanzania’s Epanko Graphite Project (2026).