China remained the world’s largest coal producer in 2025, with coal output increasing by 2.7% year-on-year to 4.98 billion tonnes. Production was strong in the first half of the year, supported by elevated energy security concerns and steady power demand. However, growth momentum slowed in the second half as intensified safety inspections and regulatory oversight constrained output across key producing regions. Measures to curb overcapacity and manage supply discipline resulted in temporary mine suspensions and production curtailments, offsetting earlier gains and leading to a more moderate full-year growth outcome.
The National Energy Administration (NEA) expanded inspections across major hubs from July, directing authorities to review overproduction. This led to output reductions in key regions. For example, Inner Mongolia ordered the suspension of 15 mines, while Shanxi cut production by 7% as 54 mines with an annual capacity of 61.1 million tonnes were halted or scaled back due to safety-related constraints.
Coal production in China is projected to decline by 2026, marking the first contraction since 2016. The downturn is expected to be driven by excess supply, softer demand growth, and elevated inventory levels across the value chain. Stricter regulatory enforcement, including inspections and tighter approvals for capacity expansion, is likely to further limit output. At the same time, weaker margins and reduced utilisation rates at higher-cost mines are expected to discourage aggressive production, reinforcing the downward trend in 2026.
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Over the forecast period, China’s coal production is expected to continue trending lower as renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, accounts for an increasing share of new electricity generation. Structural policy shifts away from coal-fired power, greater emphasis on energy diversification, and continued progress in clean energy technologies are expected to weigh on coal demand. As a result, coal production is forecast to decline at a negative CAGR of 0.2%, reaching approximately 4.8 billion tonnes by 2035, despite coal’s ongoing role in ensuring near-term energy security.
