Australia’s gold production is set to decline for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, to 10.2 million ounces (moz), representing a 0.1% decrease from 2024. The decline bucks the global trend, with the rest of the world expected to see a 0.17% increase in production.
This comes against a backdrop of soaring gold prices, which hit $4,071.38 per ounce (oz) on 17 November 2025, up from $2590.10/oz at the same point in 2024 – an increase of 57.19%.
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A non-yielding asset, the precious metal has long been considered a safe haven for investors during times of economic and geopolitical instability. Tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump earlier in the year shook the global trade scene, while conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and rumbling tensions across the Middle East have solidified gold’s status as an attractive investment.
“The geopolitical landscape just got a little bit hotter and, traditionally, this is when people like to turn to a haven asset,” comments Daniel Von Ahlen, analyst at TS Lombard.
He adds that the downturn in China’s property market and the aftermath of the Covid pandemic (which saw high inflation, increasing interest rates and a shift in the diversification benefit of bonds) have also acted as global drivers in reaffirming gold’s role as a “protection in your portfolio”.
The decline in gold production in Australia therefore seems surprising, but the country’s outlook tells a different story. Production there is set to increase rapidly, with GlobalData, Mining Technology’s parent company, estimating that Australia’s gold production will reach 13.2moz annually by 2030.
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By GlobalDataConsequently, operators are looking to rebalance portfolios and strategically position themselves to meet the increased demand and cash in on impressive forecasts.
The time is ripe, as the picture is set to move from one of planned closures and production reductions to one of new projects and expansions.
Why has gold production reduced in Australia?
Always an exceptional commodity, gold bucks the typical supply-demand curve.
Usually, when a commodity experiences high prices, production increases, demand is reduced and the price corrects. However, gold producers have historically responded to price surges by decreasing production. As more of each orebody becomes economic, operators prioritise the extraction, processing and selling of lower-grade ore, creating a backward-rising supply curve.
This is happening at some Australian gold mines. According to Newmont’s third-quarter results, the Boddington mine produced 8.97 million tonnes (mt) of gold but processed 9.48mt. Northern Star Resource’s (NSR) Kalgoorlie, a super pit in Western Australia (WA), is also reported to have plans to continue processing stockpiles of lower-grade ore until 2029.
A spokesperson from the Queensland Government’s Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Manufacturing and Regional and Rural Development tells Mining Technology: “High gold prices create opportunities for producers, but decisions about production levels are driven by individual project economics and long-term sustainability.”
Evolution Mining operates several gold mines across Australia. Asked about decreasing production, managing director and CEO Lawrie Conway explains: “We don’t change our long-term mine plans based on short-term fluctuations in commodity prices. Our ore reserves and operational plans are designed to withstand commodity price volatility, which ensures we prosper through the cycle and capitalise on the upswings like the period we are currently in.”
While the processing of lower-grade ore is likely to be occurring to some degree, GlobalData analyst Gayathri Siripurapu primarily attributes Australia’s reduced gold production to planned closures and delays around capacity increases.
In a recent report, she identified planned lower production at Newmont’s Cadia mine in New South Wales – one of the largest gold mines in Australia – as a major contributor to production decline. The company is moving its operations to Panel Cave 3, a new orebody containing lower-grade gold ore. GlobalData records show production at the mine fell from 509,100oz in 2024 to 307,200oz in 2025.
Elsewhere, Agnico Eagle Mines’ Fosterville gold mine was once one of the highest-grade and lowest-cost gold producers in the world, but the mine’s reserves are now depleted. GlobalData records show that in 2020, the mine produced 640,500oz, but by 2024, this figure had dropped to 225,200oz. By 2025, it expects production to be at 150,000oz.
In addition, Siripurapu highlights several planned mine closures: “Ramelius Resources’ Tampia, Evolution Mining’s Mount Rawdon, Auric Mining’s Jeffreys Find and Leeuwin Metals’ Marda projects will collectively remove over 180,000oz from the country’s total production.”
Located near Narembeen in WA, Tampia’s mining operations concluded in the June 2023 quarter. Prior to this, it had produced 67,400oz of gold in 2023, up from 60,200oz in 2022, according to GlobalData records.
Evolution Mining’s Mount Rawdon, an open-pit surface gold mine in Queensland, had been operating since 2001 until it ceased production during the first half of 2025. According to GlobalData, it produced 68,600oz in 2024, compared to 32,500oz in 2025.
Located in WA, Auric Mining’s Jeffreys Find was always set to be a short-life mine. Operations began in 2023 and closed in mid-2025, with GlobalData recording a total gold output of 24,600oz.
The tide will turn: Australia’s production is set to increase
Despite recent reductions, several new projects are set to commence post-2025, promising to offset recent reductions and reverse the declining production trend. Foremost among these is the Hemi Gold project, with a projected annual production capacity of 553,000oz.
Other mines expected to increase production include Boddington, Kalgoorlie, Tropicana, Gruyere and Jundee, all in WA.
Speaking about the Jundee mine during the quarterly call, Simon Jessop, chief operating officer at NSR, told investors that “development at Griffin [newest operation at Jundee] is progressing ahead of schedule, with first ore now under way, unlocking future access to higher-grade stoke tonnes”. GlobalData predicts that the mine’s production will increase by 0.06% between 2025 and 2026, and by a further 0.1% between 2026 and 2027, when it will reach more than 281,000oz.
Meanwhile, Newmont’s Boddington mine will increase its gold production from 614,400oz in 2025 to a forecasted 841,500oz in 2027, a substantial 31.2% increase, according to GlobalData. NSR’s Kalgoorlie mine is set to see a 62.6% increase in production between 2025 and 2027, from 405,400oz to 775,000oz.
On the other side of the country, Regis Resources’ McPhillamys project (located just 20km from Newmont’s Cadia mine) is set to start producing from 2028, when it is forecast to produce more than 38,000oz of gold, increasing to 76,170oz by 2030.
Ramelius’ managing director, Mark Zeptner, expects the company to also see a production increase, specifically from its Mount Magnet mine. He explains: “Based on the five-year outlook Ramelius released in late October, production from Mount Magnet will be 185,000–205,000oz in FY26 [financial year 2026] and 200,000–220,000oz in FY27, before lifting to 280,000–310,000oz in FY28 as more ore from the high-grade Never Never deposit at Dalgaranga is incorporated into Mount Magnet mill feed.”
The company’s Rebecca-Roe project will also contribute to production from 2029. For both projects, Zeptner says: “Ramelius has guided to produce 500,000–550,000oz in FY30 and expects to be able to sustain that production level for at least five years.”
In Queensland, gold production has remained stable; its government’s spokesperson explains that the region has seen “steady growth in small-scale prospecting and mining, reflecting broader community interest alongside larger commercial operations”. They note that “exploration spending has increased as global demand for gold remains high, with new discoveries and technology helping sustain production”.
Queensland’s largest pure gold-producing mine, Ravenswood, has undergone recent expansion, experiencing a 99.5% increase in gold production between 2020 and 2024, according to GlobalData. It is forecast to produce 183,700oz in 2025, increasing by 5.97% to 195,000oz in 2027.
Queensland is also home to the Osborne mine, which produced 39,400oz in 2024, the Dugald River project, which produced 620oz, and Evolution Mining’s Ernest Henry mine, which produced 78,760oz.
Conway tells Mining Technology that Evolution Mining plans to advance projects such as the Ernest Henry and Northparkes mine “that will either extend mine life or increase production rates”. He adds: “We will be increasing Mungari’s production by 50% following the successful commissioning of the process plant expansion project, while at Cowal we are starting the Open Pit Continuation project, which will extend the mining operations by ten years.”
Operators are rebalancing portfolios
Australia’s positive gold forecast offers an ideal environment for attracting investment, prompting companies to expand operations and open new mines. As Zeptner puts it: “It is a great time to be in the business of gold mining.”
These expansions are likely to coincide with a continuation in rapidly increasing gold prices – and Australia is set to win big. Von Ahlen comments: “The trends that are the key drivers behind that gold rally won’t go away, so this market will probably continue to go up.”
The optimistic outlook has prompted a flurry of mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia’s gold sector, particularly by operators seeing declining production profiles at their existing mines. Among several recent deals is NSR’s $3.25bn (A$4.99bn) purchase of De Grey in 2024, which provided NSR with full ownership of the Hemi gold project, estimated to have an 11.2moz gold deposit.
Other major deals include Gold Fields’ acquisition of Gold Road Resources in October, which saw Gold Fields attain full ownership of the Gruyere gold mine in WA, and Ramelius’ acquisition of Spartan Resources, which was valued at around A$2.4bn. The deal provided Ramelius with ownership of the Dalgaranga gold mine and full ownership of the four exploration tenements at the Dalgaranga gold project.
Although good for business, record prices do come with some hiccups. The Queensland Government spokesperson warns that “while high gold prices, ongoing exploration and technology advancements provide opportunities for growth, the sector must manage challenges such as declining ore grades, rising costs, regulatory compliance and sustainability concerns to ensure long-term viability”.
The concerns are echoed by Zeptner, who notes that “with the record price, activity in the industry has increased and that has again put pressure on wages. It is not yet like we saw during Covid, but wages probably increased 5–10% year-on-year in FY25, and there remains strong competition for good people.”
