Despite seasonal weather disruptions and increased regulatory scrutiny, Guinea's bauxite exports witnessed a significant 23% year-on-year (YoY) increase in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025).  

As per the Ministry of Mines and Geology, the country's shipments of the vital aluminium ore totalled 39.41 million tonnes (mt), an increase from 32mt in the same period the previous year, reported Reuters. 

The majority of these exports were sent to China.  

However, the monthly export average of 13.14mt during Q3 reflects a nearly 19% drop from the first half (H1) of the year, reflecting the impact of heavy rains on mining operations and port activities in Guinea, the world's second-largest bauxite producer. 

The military-led government's recent actions, which included revoking mining licences and pressuring companies to construct alumina refineries, have introduced a degree of operational uncertainty. 

An independent mineral economist focused on Guinea, Bernabe Sanchez, was quoted by the news agency as saying: "With these volumes, Guinea’s annual bauxite output is likely to land around 180mt – well below the pace set in H1 but still more than 20% above last year’s record." 

Chinese companies have maintained a strong presence in Guinea's bauxite market, controlling around 54.6% of Q3 exports.  

Leading the way is SMB-Winning with 17.51mt, followed by CHALCO and CDM-CHINE.  

Guinea's significant contribution, comprising roughly one-third of China's bauxite imports, bolsters Beijing's influence over the global aluminium supply chain. 

In contrast to a decline in steel production, China's aluminium output surged by 2.6% YoY in Q1 2025.  

This growth is attributed to strong demand from the electric vehicle sector and infrastructure projects, according to Chinese official data. 

Guinea is gearing up for the inaugural shipment from the Simandou iron ore project, with the bulk of the high-grade ore earmarked for China. 

This development not only strengthens Beijing's control over Guinea's mining output but also solidifies Conakry's position as a key supplier for China's industrial needs. 

Despite governmental pressure to develop domestic alumina refineries, Guinea exported a mere 78,000 tonnes of alumina in Q3 2025.