The World Nuclear Association’s latest report has highlighted the need for investment in the nuclear fuel cycle as demand for nuclear capacity continues to grow.
The latest edition of the World Nuclear Fuel Report, released at the World Nuclear Symposium 50, revealed that the anticipated growth in nuclear energy generation is expected to result in heightened demand for primary uranium production.
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Furthermore, the report stated that while there are sufficient uranium resources to support nuclear growth until 2040, these resources must be developed into production to ensure that supply meets demand.
The latest edition of the report features a new section dedicated to regional primary supply and demand, highlighting the increasing impact of geopolitical elements, especially following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022.
These factors continue to influence worldwide demand for nuclear energy and the accessibility of essential fuel cycle services such as uranium, conversion, enrichment and fabrication.
The report presents three potential pathways for the progression of nuclear energy, comprising the Reference Scenario, which aligns with existing targets set by governments and utilities; the Lower Scenario, which predicts setbacks; and the Upper Scenario, which envisions more advantageous circumstances for reaching net-zero carbon emissions.
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By GlobalDataThe Reference Scenario predicts a rise in nuclear capacity from 372 gigawatts of electricity (GWe) in 2024 to 746GWe by 2040, an increase of 60GWe from the previous year’s report.
Global uranium requirements for reactors are expected to grow substantially from an estimated 68,920 tonnes (t) in 2025 to more than 150,000t in the Reference Scenario by 2040.
The Upper Scenario projects an even higher capacity of 966GWe, while the Lower Scenario estimates 552GWe.
In the Upper Scenario, uranium demand could exceed 204,000t, while the Lower Scenario presents a requirement of 107,000t.
The report highlights the pressing need for new primary uranium supply as existing mines deplete their resources by the mid-2020s.
It emphasises the “timely investment opportunity” in all fuel services to increase future production.
The report also notes that geopolitical shifts are influencing fuel market dynamics, making investment critical to ensure the security of supply.
