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April 7, 2020

The fight against Covid-19: what does winning look like when the enemy is a virus?

By Duncan West

A data analysis from the New Statesman

Over the last week, Italy has recorded a stable reduction in average daily deaths from Covid-19. If the UK continues to track the same course, 16 days behind, deaths will plateau in around nine days. What should happen then?

An Imperial College paper suggested a “minimum policy” of social distancing, home isolation of cases and school and university closure would “need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more.”

In the New Statesman, David Ottewell writes that a phased easing of the lockdown is entirely plausible – with greater restrictions remaining for those deemed most vulnerable. But until the worldwide search for a vaccine succeeds, “winning” is likely to mean making sure we lose as little as we can.

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