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April 15, 2020

Upward turn in Covid-19 fatalities trend fosters doubt that peak has been reached

By Paul Dennis

The trend in new deaths caused by Covid-19 worldwide has taken an upward turn after a week of falls fuelled optimism that the worst could be over.

Our chart shows the number of deaths recorded each day as a rolling three-day average – smoothing out “noise” caused by particularly low or high reporting on any given day.


While Italy – which is more than a month into lockdown – and Spain appear to be well past their peaks, the picture remains more erratic elsewhere.

The USA’s three-day average rose after a record number of deaths were announced there yesterday. The figures are complicated by the fact working patterns over Easter weekend may have caused delays in reporting deaths – leading to the figures for the first part of this week potentially under-estimating the true death toll.

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